[moved from libertarian-370] Fed Debate

I don't recall stating that a reduction in the supply of the unit of exchange reduces consumption.

Quoting you from below:

"[with gold] consumers can hoard as misers, starving consumption"

"Hoarding" reduces the supply of currency. If this isn't what you saw as starving consumption, what is the connection?

As a thought experiment consider what happens when some % of the population "hoards" a relatively fixed quantity currency. The supply of currency goes down, prices drop, and everyone has a greater incentive to spend. The system is self regulating.

The standard response to this observation is that people also have a greater incentive to hoard - to wait for more value for their currency - leading to a Keynesian deflationary spiral. But the fact that people spend a tremendous amount of money on exponentially deflating items such as computer equipment proves that the time value of purchases limits this effect.

I suspect that there are no real world examples of deflationary spirals and that deflationary spikes are invariably the result of credit bubble collapses (again caused by central bank inflationary monetary policies).

Thank you for posting this, Steve. Speaking as an observer of
difficult times in my Third Country background, I would venture to
state that people "hoard as misers" when they perceive messy times
ahead. Otherwise, they invest and spend. The catch is that we need
to get rid of the messy times the only sure way -- the gold standard,
which might lead to some transitory hoarding.

See you at the End the Fed Rally?

Marcy

people are not spending because we have a debt based economy, and the value of the debt is based on the faith that it will be repaid. The debt was created out of thin air, and is disappearing back there. Minski describes the deteriorization of an economy from hedged to specuulative to ponzi. We are falling out of a ponzi economy.

The excess stability that was maintained by Greenspan let the world economy leverage into a ponzi state. The errors were built into the system and then exacerbated by the human idiosyncracies of the few powerful men who controlled the fed and by extension the worlds standard of reserve. Greenspans particular idiosyncracy, IMMHO, was that he was a short little man of a small religious minority who wanted big buxomme connected blonds of the majority religious sect. the best way to have access to what he wanted was through power, which was enhanced by maintaining continuing expansion of the credit bubble until extreme stabiility over an extended period led to an extreme ponzi world wide.

One of the beauties of gold is that it has no human frailities. It's supply cannot be manipulated by easily manipulating digits on a computer. It issues no press conferences. It does not testify before congress. and it doesn't need to get laid.

Of course it can suffer from all the problems of violent coerceive, statists. It can be seized at gunpoint and concentrated by force or fraud licensed by those with physical might. that is why the gold standard was a failure in the end. the gold was concentrated by the fraud of fractional reserve banking permitted and encouraged by governments that benefitted from the fraud and used their might to solidify the fraud into a worldwide system of central bankers to protect the fraud artists whenever their perfidity was unearthed by a bank run. Thus small bank runs, like small forest fires were suppressed for decades, even national bank runs were suppressed by international bailouts, and so the fraud deepened, like fuel in a forest that has gone without fire for a century. Finally the fraud got so deep worldwide that a conflagration was unleaseshed. A giant worldwide forest fire of bank runs.

With no central banking, one hundred percent reserve banking, strict enforcement of fraud prohibitions, and material money that cannot be easily increased in quantity, none of this is possible.

The global bank run happening now is the inevitable result of bad monetary choices made for a very long time. The actual tradegedy is horrific, but trying to stop it is futile. The situation reminds me of the Johnstown flood. For yearss the PTB were warned that the dam for the country club lake was faulty. Warnings were ignored. the members of the power elite enjoyed languid summer days floating under parasols on the lake, as slowly, unseen, the dam weakened with each trickle. The final collapse was catastrophic for the thousands in the valley below. once unleashed, the flood could not be stopped.
Resources wasted in futile attmmpt to stop the flood will be washed away with it.

tThe best action now is to get out of the way. take what you can carry and seek higher ground. Marshalling energy and resources to save oneself, and then aid the victims around you. In attempting to stop the flood , the governement risks being washed away, and or materially weakened.

Phil,

  This is about the best description I think I've heard yet of the financial mess. Nice analogy!

Love & Liberty,
        ((( starchild )))

On Nov 20, 2008, at 7:14 AM, Philip Berg wrote (in part):