Hi all,
I generally agree with Phil about the long term prospects for the Dollar. The Euro seems not too far behind, with some better managed central banks having longer to live. Historically, all fiat currencies have failed.
But, the time scale involved can be much longer than people's investment horizon. The politicians will do almost anything to keep the scam going as long as possible. And, it is certainly possible that we could experience deflation, due to a decrease in the velocity of money caused by a recession or depression long before the longer term effects of monetary inflation kick in. In other words, gold could go down, even though the Fed is currently "printing" money like it is going out of style. (There has been no precedent in US history to the amount of new money entering the system in the last year.) Gold going up (priced in dollars), although almost inevitable, could take years and years.
Now after giving this disclaimer, I will say I agree with Phil that now is still a good time to buy gold.
In the long term, fundamentals will rule, but in the short term the market has a mind of its own. So, I also believe in David's advice to buy at the "right" price, so long as you don't wait forever for it!
To determine the exact bottom of short term fluctuations is, of course, nearly impossible. It seems to me that gold has been trading in a band about 10% wide. Look at a three year price chart before jumping in. In the next few months if you can get in at better than $425, I would think you are doing better than OK.
If you have a more speculative nature, the mining stocks are the way to go, as Phil suggests.
For those looking for less leverage (and risk), you can now easily buy gold via the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) whose symbol is "GLD". GLD trades at a price very nearly equal (i.e., it's pegged) to 1/10th once of gold. ETFs trade just like stocks, with generally low commissions and buy-to-sell price spreads. Another ETF to consider is "CEF", whose price is not pegged (so it trades just by supply and demand), but which is backed by approx. equal amounts (by value) of gold and silver bullion.
You can easily own shares in these ETFs in your self-managed IRA, held by your stock broker/trustee, while owning actual bullion in an IRA, although now legally possible, is much more complicated.
And, just like ammo, I believe everyone should have some of the stuff physically in their possession. There are a large number of dealers on the web. You can always throw some of your business to Burt Blumert's company, as he is a big supporter of LewRockwell.com and has the advantage of having his small office in nearby Burlingame where you can pick the stuff up if you prefer that to the post. One ounce American Eagles are a good choice for bullion, trading at not too much over their intrinsic gold value. Numismatic items are more speculative, depending not only on the gold market but also on collectors' whims.
One ounce silver American Liberty Dollars cost substantially more than their intrinsic value, but have the advantage of being denominated in dollars so they are somewhat easier to actually use as money, and they make a political statement. Associates buy at a price above that of the silver but (usually) below their dollar denomination. If you want to buy some, I can sell them to you at face value. (If you want to become a Liberty Associate, please use me as your referer. I have put my referer link, below.)
Well, enough for now! Like Phil, I could go on and on about this subject.
Rich
(http://www.libertydollar.org/default.asp?REFERER=NRC68246)
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