Well, it looks like we may be stuck with another four years of Donald Trump. Hard to believe it’s come to this, but here we are.
Thinking about the worst that could happen is not particularly pleasant to contemplate. But what’s the best that might realistically happen? This op-ed lays out a proposed program for Trump that’s generally in line with his priorities, but avoids doing too much damage and even has a positive impact in some areas.
Love & Liberty,
((( starchild )))
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What is the Best-Case Scenario for a Trump Presidency? https://public-api.wordpress.com/bar/?stat=groovemails-events&bin=wpcom_email_click&redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fmarginalrevolution.com%2Fmarginalrevolution%2F2024%2F11%2Fwhat-is-the-best-case-scenario-for-a-trump-presidency.html&sr=0&signature=5ae6453e0bcfc232666fdf45ec715d0b&blog_id=42693868&user=19428913&_e=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&_z=z
Marginal REVOLUTION https://marginalrevolution.com/
By Alex Tabarrok on November 6, 2024
The economy is strong and Trump has a significant opportunity to simply take credit for that if he avoids major disruptions. While he must fulfill some of his campaign promises, people voted for Trump not for his policies per se. Trump has leeway. No one will accuse him of flip-flopping. While these are not my first-best policies, Trump won against astounding media and elite opposition and an attempted assassination. The people have spoken, so here’s a best-case outline for following through on Trump’s policies without cratering the economy:Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. No Chinese electric cars for us. But drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring”, maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence.
Border Control: Trump must strengthen the border. But let’s limit deportations to individuals who arrived in the past four years. Control the border, throw some illegals out but minimize human misery by not deporting long-term residents and their US-citizen families. Declare a win while avoiding economic disruption and strengthening the police state.
Vaccine and Health Policy: Appoint Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head a committee on vaccine policy and, after several years of investigation, write a report. Take medical freedom more seriously.
Crypto Regulation: Appoint Hester M. Peirce to head the SEC. Stabilize the regulatory environment for cryptocurrency. Simplify tax rules for crypto. Support digital dollar growth and treat stablecoins as what they are, namely, the US dollar dominating world electronic payments.
Space and Innovation: U.S. Space Force! Commit to Mars exploration and position the U.S. as a leader in space innovation. Get advice from Elon.
US AI. Immediately approve Meta http://marginalrevolution.com/?action=user_content_redirect&uuid=81913f209d1c6ce760a520e08d4b1c5433ac44fada33b88c11663b7ccea5b953&blog_id=42693868&post_id=89431&user_id=19428913&subs_id=966366&signature=9d67ce548f28ec53b91b4fa82274e55f&email_name=new-post&user_email=realreform@earthlink.net&encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZnQuY29tL2NvbnRlbnQvZWQ2MDJlMDktNmM0MC00OTc5LWFmZjktNzQ1M2VlMjg0MDZh for its nuclear-AI program. Swat the bees. Approve Amazon http://marginalrevolution.com/?action=user_content_redirect&uuid=23d252693c57f5b5907ffb7d741cded1df06cddc98794b14c26d116e1550e48e&blog_id=42693868&post_id=89431&user_id=19428913&subs_id=966366&signature=42437c94e02bc7e712cc9abe256af8e3&email_name=new-post&user_email=realreform@earthlink.net&encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9vcGluaW9uL2FydGljbGVzLzIwMjQtMTEtMDQvYW1hem9uLXMtbnVjbGVhci1kZWFsLXN0YWxsZWQtYnV0LWl0cy1haS1wb3dlci1kZW1hbmQtd29uLXQ/dXRtX2NvbnRlbnQ9dmlldyZjbXBpZCUzRD1zb2NpYWxmbG93LXR3aXR0ZXItdmlldyZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPXNvY2lhbCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPXR3aXR0ZXImdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNvY2lhbGZsb3ctb3JnYW5pYyZzcmVmPWh0T0hqeDVZJmVtYmVkZGVkLWNoZWNrb3V0PXRydWU as well. Tell the FERC that their job is to increase the supply of energy. Keep the Chip Act but make it clear that the goal is to dominate the space not make jobs or social policy. We are the world leaders in AI. Let’s keep it that way.
Kill Bureaucracy: Let Elon Musk take the chainsaw to a few bureaucracies like Javier Milei. Afuera! Afuera! Afuera! http://marginalrevolution.com/?action=user_content_redirect&uuid=a1da50abe564c0c7c445514c1c59b17ec63dd4db4deb5f185bf53b4b05fe911c&blog_id=42693868&post_id=89431&user_id=19428913&subs_id=966366&signature=fad3110363853c9e6065526685342fb4&email_name=new-post&user_email=realreform@earthlink.net&encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9rVVlQTnNUcE80WT9zaT1OX1Zfem05MWtKLWZaWDRjJnQ9NjE Streamline bureaucratic processes, cut red tape and invigorate tech and infrastructure initiatives.
Respect Meritocracy: End race and gender based discrimination in government programs.
Expand Housing Supply: Build baby build! http://marginalrevolution.com/?action=user_content_redirect&uuid=2e0db1064d1ad51c322d3a7f82504a6273ab78972bb07999ef6611b987277ffa&blog_id=42693868&post_id=89431&user_id=19428913&subs_id=966366&signature=c971eb703cc32d670af59efd45bd8796&email_name=new-post&user_email=realreform@earthlink.net&encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYW1hem9uLmNvbS9CdWlsZC1CYWJ5LVNjaWVuY2UtSG91c2luZy1SZWd1bGF0aW9uL2RwLzE5NTIyMjM0MTUvcmVmPXNyXzFfMT9tYXJnaW5yZXZvbC0yMA= Trump is a natural to lead this. Trump the developer! Incentivize states and localities to streamline zoning laws and reduce restrictions that hamper new housing developments. Increase housing supply.
Each of these policies is consistent with Trump’s priorities and rhetoric and has broad appeal for voters who value economic opportunity, accountability, and national resilience. The economy is strong. Trump has headwinds. If he is sensible, all of this would make for a successful presidency. If Trump wants the judgment of history, the path is open should he choose to walk it.