CPI lies

"ricochetboy" <philzberg@e...> wrote:

We have untold millions living in poverty.

We have 36 million living in poverty. See the graph at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/poverty03/pov03fig03.pdf. The "war on
poverty" in the 1960s reduced the poverty rate from over 20% to under 15%,
where it remains. Meanwhile, the material standard of living of people
classified as "poor" has been steadily improving. According to a Heritage
Foundation <http://www.heritage.org/Research/Welfare/bg1713.cfm&gt; study:

* Forty-six percent of all poor households actually own their own
homes. The average home owned by persons classified as poor by the Census
Bureau is a three-bedroom house with one-and-a-half baths, a garage, and a
porch or patio.

* Seventy-six percent of poor households have air conditioning. By
contrast, 30 years ago, only 36 percent of the entire U.S. population
enjoyed air conditioning.

* Only 6 percent of poor households are overcrowded. More than
two-thirds have more than two rooms per person.

* The average poor American has more living space than the average
individual living in Paris, London, Vienna, Athens, and other cities
throughout Europe. (These comparisons are to the average citizens in foreign
countries, not to those classified as poor.)

* Nearly three-quarters of poor households own a car; 30 percent own
two or more cars.

* Ninety-seven percent of poor households have a color television;
over half own two or more color televisions.

* Seventy-eight percent have a VCR or DVD player; 62 percent have
cable or satellite TV reception.

* Seventy-three percent own microwave ovens, more than half have a
stereo, and a third have an automatic dishwasher.

adjusted for inflation the loss of
wealth from the recession from 1966 to 1982 was
as severe as the great depression.

Yes, the percentage drop in the inflation-adjusted Dow from 1966 to 1982 was
comparable to that between 1929 and 1933, but it's a mistake to call the
former period a recession. A recession is two consecutive quarters of
declining GDP. From 1929 to 1933, real GDP declined 26%, whereas from 1966
to 1982 real GDP increased 53%. You can try to distort and cherry-pick the
data to fit your apocalyptic visions, but the facts of long-term prosperity
are indisputable. Just look at real GDP per capita since 1900
(The First Measured Century: Book: Section 14.1), or the inflation-adjusted Dow
since 1900 (http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1925cpilog.htm). And as I said
earlier: to understand the historical returns to equities since 1871 without
cherry-picking, see http://www.vakkur.com/financial/spx_real_rtns_1871.htm.
There has never been a 30-year period with negative real returns, and more
than 90% of 20-year periods have had positive returns.

It is true that Bretton Woods succeeded in increasing the
wealth of the finacial and government classes in the US to a far
greater degree than could ever have been omagined or planned in
1944.

Mere assertion, no data.

By making the US dollar the worlds standrd of value, the Fed has
been anle to dilute the coin of the realm for sixty years and pass
the resulting inflation onto the rest of the world

Mere assertion, no data.

This enabled a tremendous
trandfer of wealth tothe american finacial elite and it's governmemnt
benefactor. The continuous debasement of the currencypunished savers
and rewarded debtors worldwide, but especially in the US. Viet Nam was
funded this way, as is Iraq.

Mere assertion, no data.

the currency has been significantly overvalued for a very
long time,and this has contributed to the declinein the manufacturing
base.

A truism teetering on an unsubstantiated assertion.

The US is now runnig a 6 percent current account deficit which is
unsustainablw.

I already responded to this, and blogged the response as point 2 at
Yahoo | Mail, Weather, Search, Politics, News, Finance, Sports & Videos.

we may continue
to prosper despote the predation of continuous monetary debasement.

A "debasement" that I already pointed out is invisible in a quarter century
of gold price data.

The fed , if it wants
to keep long term rates from rising dramatically will bave t montize,
is buy long term treasuries. This is highly inflationary.

We already know U.S. interest rates are going to rise; "dramatically" is
your spin. It's untenable to claim the Fed is going to just throw away the
anti-inflation credibility that it's worked so hard to earn since 1982.

The trillions in overseas US
assets that have silently watched over 40 percent declines since Bush
took office, may finally reach the threshold of pain, and all run for
the exits at once.

Unsourced assertion plus apocalyptic vision.

I would say that the populat hubris that the Fed
can centrally plan the finacil syustem indefinitely now that we are on
a totlal faith based system is a mass delusion bordering ona religion.
The mainstram gold bashers who are legion, have much to gain from the
staus quo, and are at least as Religous as the most pious gold bug.

Thank you for not denying that being a gold bug is a religion. :slight_smile: By
contrast, the belief that the Fed can continue to provide stable monetary
policy is not based on faith, but on decades of hard data and on the
peer-reviewed consensus of economic science.

P.S. I can't promise I'll bother to keep rebutting your gold-bug postings,
as it's somewhat like debating creationism or JFK assassination conspiracy.
The only reason I do so at all is to limit the damage that gold buggery does
to the intellectual credibility of the LP.

Brian Holtz
Yahoo! Inc.
2004 Libertarian candidate for Congress, CA14 (Silicon Valley)
http://marketliberal.org/&gt;
blog: http://knowinghumans.net/&gt;
book: http://humanknowledge.net/&gt;

The above link is from the St Louis Fed. Since 1980 m3 had risen from
two trillion to 8 trillion, a 400 perce3nt increase. The definition of
inflation is more money. So who got the extra six trillion first. The
banks did by creating deposits from thin air through the fraud of
fractional reserve banking. The Fed more than doubled the money supply
from it's inception until 1929 and there was no price inflation in
that era either.In both eras there was an explosion in technology and
productivity inherant in the natural march of human knowledge that
masked the price inflation. Nevertheless the monetary inflation caused
inbalances that eventually took thier toll. Ihe lies in the cpi and
ppi go on even now. Energy increases have been flat out papered over,
see last weeks Mogambo Guru on kitco.com. And as explained prevuously
there are as many US dollar instruments overseas as here. the
willingness of the world to take our paper has greatly releived price
inflation and held down interest rates.A reversal in confidence is
possible, and that is a blanket undocumented assertion. sure the poor
are well off in bling bling, the whole damn country is drowning in
bling bling cuz the world is still willing to take our paper and make
stuff for us.But the piles of dollars in cenral banks and private
hands overseas grows higher every day by 2 trillion dollars. I assert
on no authority but common sense that at some point the foreign
holders will begin to tire of piling up american paper and start to
move slowly at first and then more rapidly into some perceived lower
risk asset, perhaps even precious metals. And the governbent is busy
writing checks to everybody...earned income credits, disability...the
list is long. We agree completely that unfunded liabilities are the
problem, but thats what makes the fiat system so scary.I assert
without reference that Congress can't possibly cut the benefits to
bring them into actuarial balance. And there is not enough money in
the world to pay the the unfunded liabilities. So what will they do.
As much as possible lie aboutr the cpi to avoid raising benefits.
Every lie has compunding benefits. Then they will just borrow the
money. Of the market will not lend at reasonable rates, they will
demand that the fed buy the bonds Of the fed refuses they order the
ttreasury to print the money. The habit of having the fiat system bail
you out with the printing press is now well established inthe
political mind of the congress and the public. Thats why the
republican Vice President says deficits don't matter. You cannot
seperate the existence of the fractional reserve fiat monetary system
and the absolute finacial recklessness of the congress. They exist
together. That I asssert with no refernce. The stage is set. The
disaster is inevitable. when it comes, it is my hope that there will
be enough Austrians around so that people look to the Constitution for
answers and not to violence.
van you see any way out of the budget mess. As for gold buggery giving
libertarians a bad name, I beg to disagree. Without an Austrian
explaination to the great depression, to inflation, to 3 dollar gas,
to stagflation, and to all the other ills of our finacial system, then
the fild is left to Socialists to say that capitalism doesn;t work, it
is too unstable, it creates too much inequality, and lack of
opportunity, and we must have big fovernment to protect us. Austrian
economica and it's critique of the nations and the worlds's finacial
system is the only way that we will ultimately wincredibility, as it
is correct. Quadrupling the money supplyover the last 25 years has
manged to avoid catastrophe, but the total debt, federal state, local,
business, and individual grows faster to now exceed levels last seen
n the dabths of the depression and exceeding 1929. I wish I had the
faith in the Fed you do to continue this balet forever. But I place by
bets with history, Argentina, Germany, the Confederacy, the
Continental Congress, France of Louis xv and xci, and the fate of
every other nation over the thelast 5000 years who tried every
possible debasement scheme. And I place my bets with Von Mises, who
said plainly, a central bank can print itself into trouble,but never
print itself out of trouble.

Seeing as your fond of quoting the hoover instutute, I guess they
don't call it that for nothing...August 11, 1928

"Unemployment in the sense of distress is widely disappearing. . . .
We in America today are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than
ever before in the history of any land. The poor-house is vanishing
from among us. We have not yet reached the goal, but given a change to
go forward with the policies of the last eight years, and we shall
soon with he help of God be in sight of the day when poverty will be
banished from this nation. There is no guarantee against poverty equal
to a job for every man. That is the primary purpose of the economic
policies we advocate:

—Herbert Hoover, speech accepting the Republican nomination, Palo
Alto, California.

September 17, 1928
Are we having fun with this. I am, hope youare too.
--- In lpsf-discuss@...m, "Brian Holtz" <brian@h...> wrote:

"ricochetboy" <philzberg@e...> wrote:

> We have untold millions living in poverty.

We have 36 million living in poverty. See the graph at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/poverty03/pov03fig03.pdf. The

"war on

poverty" in the 1960s reduced the poverty rate from over 20% to

under 15%,

where it remains. Meanwhile, the material standard of living of people
classified as "poor" has been steadily improving. According to a

Heritage

Foundation <http://www.heritage.org/Research/Welfare/bg1713.cfm&gt; study:

* Forty-six percent of all poor households actually own their own
homes. The average home owned by persons classified as poor by the

Census

Bureau is a three-bedroom house with one-and-a-half baths, a garage,

and a

porch or patio.

* Seventy-six percent of poor households have air conditioning. By
contrast, 30 years ago, only 36 percent of the entire U.S. population
enjoyed air conditioning.

* Only 6 percent of poor households are overcrowded. More than
two-thirds have more than two rooms per person.

* The average poor American has more living space than the average
individual living in Paris, London, Vienna, Athens, and other cities
throughout Europe. (These comparisons are to the average citizens in

foreign

countries, not to those classified as poor.)

* Nearly three-quarters of poor households own a car; 30 percent own
two or more cars.

* Ninety-seven percent of poor households have a color television;
over half own two or more color televisions.

* Seventy-eight percent have a VCR or DVD player; 62 percent have
cable or satellite TV reception.

* Seventy-three percent own microwave ovens, more than half have a
stereo, and a third have an automatic dishwasher.

> adjusted for inflation the loss of
> wealth from the recession from 1966 to 1982 was
> as severe as the great depression.

Yes, the percentage drop in the inflation-adjusted Dow from 1966 to

1982 was

comparable to that between 1929 and 1933, but it's a mistake to call the
former period a recession. A recession is two consecutive quarters of
declining GDP. From 1929 to 1933, real GDP declined 26%, whereas

from 1966

to 1982 real GDP increased 53%. You can try to distort and

cherry-pick the

data to fit your apocalyptic visions, but the facts of long-term

prosperity

are indisputable. Just look at real GDP per capita since 1900
(The First Measured Century: Book: Section 14.1), or the

inflation-adjusted Dow

since 1900 (http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1925cpilog.htm). And as I

said

earlier: to understand the historical returns to equities since 1871

without

cherry-picking, see

http://www.vakkur.com/financial/spx_real_rtns_1871.htm.

There has never been a 30-year period with negative real returns,

and more

than 90% of 20-year periods have had positive returns.

> It is true that Bretton Woods succeeded in increasing the
> wealth of the finacial and government classes in the US to a far
> greater degree than could ever have been omagined or planned in
> 1944.

Mere assertion, no data.

> By making the US dollar the worlds standrd of value, the Fed has
> been anle to dilute the coin of the realm for sixty years and pass
> the resulting inflation onto the rest of the world

Mere assertion, no data.

> This enabled a tremendous
> trandfer of wealth tothe american finacial elite and it's governmemnt
> benefactor. The continuous debasement of the currencypunished savers
> and rewarded debtors worldwide, but especially in the US. Viet Nam was
> funded this way, as is Iraq.

Mere assertion, no data.

> the currency has been significantly overvalued for a very
> long time,and this has contributed to the declinein the manufacturing
> base.

A truism teetering on an unsubstantiated assertion.

> The US is now runnig a 6 percent current account deficit which is
> unsustainablw.

I already responded to this, and blogged the response as point 2 at
Yahoo | Mail, Weather, Search, Politics, News, Finance, Sports & Videos.

> we may continue
> to prosper despote the predation of continuous monetary debasement.

A "debasement" that I already pointed out is invisible in a quarter

century

of gold price data.

> The fed , if it wants
> to keep long term rates from rising dramatically will bave t montize,
> is buy long term treasuries. This is highly inflationary.

We already know U.S. interest rates are going to rise; "dramatically" is
your spin. It's untenable to claim the Fed is going to just throw

away the

anti-inflation credibility that it's worked so hard to earn since 1982.

> The trillions in overseas US
> assets that have silently watched over 40 percent declines since Bush
> took office, may finally reach the threshold of pain, and all run for
> the exits at once.

Unsourced assertion plus apocalyptic vision.

> I would say that the populat hubris that the Fed
> can centrally plan the finacil syustem indefinitely now that we are on
> a totlal faith based system is a mass delusion bordering ona religion.
> The mainstram gold bashers who are legion, have much to gain from the
> staus quo, and are at least as Religous as the most pious gold bug.

Thank you for not denying that being a gold bug is a religion. :slight_smile: By
contrast, the belief that the Fed can continue to provide stable

monetary

policy is not based on faith, but on decades of hard data and on the
peer-reviewed consensus of economic science.

P.S. I can't promise I'll bother to keep rebutting your gold-bug

postings,

as it's somewhat like debating creationism or JFK assassination

conspiracy.

The only reason I do so at all is to limit the damage that gold

buggery does

OO[s misread the graph, thats two trillion to ten ten trillion for the
money supply in 25 years, a 500 percent increase. Thats eight billion
bucks the banks got to create out of thin air and spread first to
those who have acess to bank credit.

http://tinyurl.com/8zwvp

I don't think he is well liked by the leadership.

for making me dig deeper. Here is something hot off the press that
ofers government data on the accumulation of our foreign account
deficits. It also offers a good historical discuassion of the
connection between Social Security entitlements and fiat bractional
reserve banking. I don't endorse all the rantiness but the data and
history are worth the read.

Here is the link.
... http://tinyurl.com/dznz

try the kink again... sorry

http://smcurl.com/AWsQg

Phil,

  No need to apologize for kink! :wink:

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