This is what I would have predicted... we'll see if it holds. From the Gonzalez for Mayor news update:
The Chronicle has reported what we've known all along: Matt Gonzalez is in second place! According to the most recent poll, Matt Gonzalez is the leading progressive candidate in the mayoral race with the best chance to win on Tuesday and enter the run-off election.
To quote the Chronicle's article directly, "An Oct. 21 survey of 400 likely voters, conducted by San Francisco pollster David Binder for local businesses, showed Newsom with 36 percent of the vote, followed by Gonzalez at 15 percent, Alioto at 13 percent, Ammiano at 10 percent and Leal at 7 percent." Click here to read the entire article...
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/10/29/MNGCK2LF7A1.DTL