BBC Global warming video

Correlation does not equal causation.

What caused the warming 650,000 years ago, and what caudsed th e rise at approximately the same time? ( Perhaps a Neanderthal industrial revolution?

Could it be possible that some other factor is raising carbon dioxide levels
other than the burning of fossil fuels?

Did the mere raising of this question raise the reader's ire?

The Ph of the world oceans has been observed to be going down ie the oceans
have been getting more acidic. ( No they have not been becoming more
Hasidic!) Is it possible that this change of acidity is due to billions of
tons of sulpher burned with the fossil fuels? Is it possible that the
resulting acid is dissolving coral reefs, sea shells and underwater
linestone and ooze releasing carbon dioxide, and this is the real culprit?

Does the mere asking of these questions raise anger in the reader?

How accurate are the measurements of CO2 in the polar ice from 650,000
years ago. How repeatable are those measurements and are there any possible
confounding factors that may have changed the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the entrapped antartic ice micro bubbles over the 650000 years
they have been frozen?

Are the longterm arctic ice carbon dioxide measurements from the last 650,
000 years sensitive over short periods of time , like 100 year intervals?
Have there been many short term carbon dioxide spikes that have been averaged
out when reporting the results? The reported Co2 levels from the distant past are derived
from micro bubbles in the arctic ice cores or antartic cores. Carbon dating
of the cores has a significant margin of error for each sample. In
antartica, very little snow falls, so how wide is a hundred year slice, and
how easily would it be to detect historic spikes of Co2 that only lasted a
hundred years?

If the correlation is in fact very precisely mesured for short time
increments, can global temperature also be precisely pinpointed in less
than hundred year increments to even 25 year increments to demonstrate
that Co2 elevation preceeded temperature elevation, or was it the other way
around.?

Rising temperatures increase the solubility of sea shells, ooze and
limestone, resulting in the realease of Co2. Temperature rises thuss can
lead to rising Co2 levels.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
But the much more important point is this. In science there are only theories
and observations that tend to indicate the validity of those theories. Thus
in muy University, the theory of Evolution was almost always referred to as the Central Dogma of Modern Biology

This language was used to remind us that regardless of the overwhelming
evidence of the theory, a scientist must always maintain an open mind and
approach every question the theory raises without prejudice. If a theory is
ever accepted as proven to be the unquestioned truth, then it becomes a Dogma, and not susceptable to scientific
inquiry. This is why the arguement by authority, that global warming must
be correct because the majority of respected scientists say it is, should carry absolutely no weight in the scientific arena.
Before the twentieth century, the overwhelming majorityof scientists held that light
travelled in an unseen ether. Before Galileo, the overwhelming majority of Scientists
held that the sun revolved around the earth. Authority and majority are not
scientific arguements.

The ability of a theory to predict repeatable
observations is the test of a theory's validity. When the theory fails to
conform with a set of observations, it must be rejected. In the meantime it
is accepted as theory, and constantly barraged with alternative theories,
and tests of those theories with observations. Just as the overwhlming
majority of Scientists believe in the central dogma of modern biology, the
working hypothesis that evolution explains observations in the biological
world, so the Central Dogma of Climatology is that the theory of Fossil fuel
Carbon dioxide emissions will cause global warming and the dogma that the predicted warming
will cause cattastrophic climate change.

Anthropollogists and historians have observed the tendency of Humans to
adopt prophecies of doom as Dogma in many cultures over many centuries.

When I was going to college in the seventies, the well accepted dogma was that particulate pollution would cool the planet. Dire predictions of an imminent ice age were widely accepted by "experts" and "prominent" scientists.

--- In lpsf-discuss@yahoogroups.com, "Philip Berg" <philzberg@...>
wrote:

Correlation does not equal causation.

This is one of the most common and problematic logical/scientific
fallacies in circulation. A correlation _evinces_ causation - the
stronger the correlation, the greater the probability of causation.
If we see hundreds of thousands of years of temperature and CO2 data,
and there's a strong correlation between them, we have an
overwhelming case that the correlation isn't just a coincidence -
that there is in fact causation.

This phrase you are invoking is meant to address situations in which
there is either an insufficient number of occurances for probablistic
analysis (e.g. lightning strikes, and then your phone rings, and you
think the events are related), or the _direction_ of causation is
assumed incorrectly; you think A causes B, but B causes A, or C
causes A and B. E.g. you see a guy putting Rogaine on his bald head,
and conclude that Rogaine causes baldness, when in fact his baldness
is causing the Rogaine.

What caused the warming 650,000 years ago, and what caudsed th e

rise at

approximately the same time? ( Perhaps a Neanderthal industrial

revolution?

I didn't say there was warming 650,000 years ago. What I said was
that FOR the past 650,000 years (the amount of available ice core
data) the global mean temperature has been essentially perfectly in
sync with CO2 concentration. We know that CO2 is a "greenhouse"
gas. The chances that there is really no correlation, and that is
just all a coincidence are bordering on nil.

Could it be possible that some other factor is raising carbon

dioxide levels

other than the burning of fossil fuels?

The issue isn't what is possible, but what is _probable_. For the
650,000 years of recorded climate data preceding the industrial era,
CO2 levels never rose above a certain point. Then suddenly in the
span of a couple hundred years, up like a rocket. Again, this could
be sheer coincidence, but the odds of that are vanishingly small.
Just like I could be randomly banging on my keyboard right now and
just typing these words by accident, but it's obviously more likely
that I'm writing them intentionally. It's all about the relative
probability of the available explanations.

Did the mere raising of this question raise the reader's ire?

There IS such a thing as a stupid question.

The Ph of the world oceans has been observed to be going down ie

the oceans

have been getting more acidic. ( No they have not been becoming more
Hasidic!) Is it possible that this change of acidity is due to

billions of

tons of sulpher burned with the fossil fuels? Is it possible that

the

resulting acid is dissolving coral reefs, sea shells and underwater
linestone and ooze releasing carbon dioxide, and this is the real

culprit?

Why should that cause just _happen_ by sheer coincidence to
correspond to our industrial revolution, out of all the times it
could have occurred in the past?

Does the mere asking of these questions raise anger in the reader?

Asking a question that shows you didn't do your homework, and as a
result arrived at a stupid conclusion, can indeed anger a rationalist.

How accurate are the measurements of CO2 in the polar ice from

650,000

years ago. How repeatable are those measurements and are there any

possible

confounding factors that may have changed the concentration of

carbon

dioxide in the entrapped antartic ice micro bubbles over the 650000

years

they have been frozen?

Do you think that accomplished scientists from all over the world
haven't asked these questions and found suitable answers? Do you
really think you're that big of a genius that you thought of
something they didn't? Please.

Before the twentieth century, the overwhelming majorityof

scientists held

that light
travelled in an unseen ether.

Then there were the Michelson-Morely experiments. Science improves
and corrects science.

Before Galileo, the overwhelming majority of
Scientists held that the sun revolved around the earth.

No, there was never a scientific case for that. It was a commonly
held belief purely _because_ those who believed it had not undertaken
proper scientific inquiry.

Authority and majority are not scientific arguements.

Neither is your incredulity and weak assertion, oblivious to the
facts. When a vast majority of the scientific community accepts the
validity OF scientific arguments made about a set of data, that is a
testament to the legitimacy of those _scientific arguments_.

The ability of a theory to predict repeatable
observations is the test of a theory's validity.

It doesn't have to predict them before they happen. Saying "predict"
in the scientific sense, means that a theory should falsifiably
account for something. A theory can "predict" data that has already
been observed, and that is just as valid as a prediction about the
future.

When the theory fails to
conform with a set of observations, it must be rejected.

Oh aren't you just the little expert on science now, even though you
seem oblivious to the data surrounding global warming, as if you are
the expert who knows better than thousands of professional scientists
from around the world.

Just as the overwhlming
majority of Scientists believe in the central dogma of modern

biology, the

working hypothesis that evolution explains observations in the

biological

world, so the Central Dogma of Climatology is that the theory of

Fossil fuel

Carbon dioxide emissions will cause global warming and the dogma

that the

predicted warming
will cause cattastrophic climate change.

Evolution isn't dogma in any sense. It's an overwhelmingly supported
and obvious fact based on a profusion of data from an electic array
of scientific disciplines. Global warming is similarly supported by
extremely powerful evidence, and your weak, unexpert, unsupported
assertions do not make it dogma.

Anthropollogists and historians have observed the tendency of

Humans to

adopt prophecies of doom as Dogma in many cultures over many

centuries.

So what? If you have a claim against the _science_ of global
warming, raise it, otherwise admit you don't have the faintest clue
what you're talking about.

When I was going to college in the seventies, the well accepted

dogma was

that particulate pollution would cool the planet. Dire predictions

of an

imminent ice age were widely accepted by "experts" and "prominent"
scientists.

Certain kinds of pollutants _can_ cool the planet. But in any case,
citing a mistake someone made is not an argument. If you have an
argument to make about global warming and the data that evinces it,
please make it. Put up or...

Clay

Clay:

The BBC video agrees with your claim that temperature is correlated with
CO2--but with CO2 changes lagging temperature changes by about 800
years, which makes the causation the other way.

Sigh. Do your homework.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=13